FNF #6
By Handzalah / Black Swan Research 5 September 2026, 2:27am MYT
Topics discussed in tonight’s FNF:
- Generally one token is equivalent to one word that the AI outputs (this includes the reasoning process)
- NotebookLM hallucinates less because it does not look for data in the internet, only looks at your notes
- One member views AI in the future as AI ran locally
- Mac Studio can run AI locally due to 1) high computation 2) large storage
- 2 ways to motivating your employees
1) Monetary benefits
2) Tasks aligns with self interests - Have different “Zones” in life or different field of interest (example is work, post graduate study and a hobby)
- Having zones can dampen the effects of burnout
- Risk assessment of potential investments categorized as
1) Uncertainties’ probability of occurring
2) Uncertainties’ significance if occurred - A number should not be viewed as an arbitrary thing but rather it has to be viewed with context
- Questions to ask for numbers are
1) What is the variable?
2) What is the unit?
3) What is the protocol?
4) Where is the context? - EBITDA is not a realistic measure of earnings because they neglect depreciation and amortization as real expense
- Adjusted EBITDA is even worse because they neglect stock compensation as a real expense
- Discussion was taken on whether time or objective should be your focus when it comes to being productive
- The lazy worker vs the workaholic, which would you employ:
A) The rationale for the lazy worker is that he gets the job done with the lowest effort
B) The rationale for the workaholic is that he would be refined in his work leading to exceptional quality and would go beyond the primary obective - Signal vs Noise concept challenged by a member said that noise may be good from time to time because it can bring serendipity and allow for new ideas to flow in which initially was not the objective
- Increase amount of “Zones” can lead to more serendipity
- Hotel companies like Hilton and Marriott sell brand because they do not own the building but rather franchise their brand
- Islamic hotels and airline operators face pressure from few people who criticize their lack of alcohol service
- Costco as one of the world’s best run retain chain
- Costco’s model of low SKUs (Stock keeping units) has 2 benefits
1) makes customers less indecisive
2) drive down logistic costs and therefore able to drive down prices for customers - The low SKUs also help the inventory turnover faster
- Their large size and market dominance create interest free financing with their supplier because they get revenue in cash (some are credit but mostly cash because customer pays on the spot) and they are able to delay their payables to the suppliers
- Costco’s membership model where almost 100% of the profits is from the membership subscription revenue
- ECOSHOP increased prices on average 2% per year (for time period 2014-2025), whilst average wage growth for the same time period grew at 3.25% per year. This means the customer over time has large purchasing power due to higher wage growth relative to price of goods in ECOSHOP growth. This increases their value proposition
- Ground handling industry is consolidating
- A member had a call with SAL’s CIRO (chief investor relation officer)
- A member spent the week trying to figure out what is the impact of SAL if Saudi liberalizes their airport operation. The probability of the risk is high, however the significance is in question. Initially, the member thought it had high impact due to market share decline lead to lower revenues however, the new rationale is that if these foreign competitors come in KSA, they will increase the cargo capacity by using their large capital capacity, which then leads to SAL benefiting from a larger pie despite the decline in market share.
- Ground handling is not a negligible expense on the airlines
- Why SAL has low employee count relative to revenue was pondered upon
- The rationale was that it is because SAL is purely in the air cargo ground handling and not in the passenger services business